Pakistan's Learning Crisis: Why Three Out of Four Children Cannot Read

The Learning Poverty Crisis

Pakistan faces what development economists call "Learning Poverty" - the share of 10-year-old children who cannot read and understand a simple, age-appropriate text. In Pakistan, this figure stands at 75%.^[1]

To put this in perspective: three out of every four Pakistani children reach the age of 10 without acquiring the most basic skill that education is meant to provide. This is not just an education problem. It is a development emergency.

Learning Poverty is high in Pakistan for two reasons. First, about 20 million children are not in school at all.^[2] Second, even among children who are enrolled, about two-thirds do not learn to read.^[3] The problem is both access and quality.

The crisis has deepened in recent years. During the COVID-19 pandemic, schools in Pakistan were closed for approximately 18 months, leading to widespread dropouts and learning losses.^[3] Then, in 2022, devastating floods damaged over 17,000 schools and affected more than 2.6 million enrolled children, who were out of school for an average of seven weeks.^[6] Following these twin shocks, estimates of Learning Poverty rose to 80%.^[3]

Six months after the floods, surveys found that one-third of affected households expected they might need to take their children out of school to work.^[7]

Twenty Million Children Out of School

Pakistan has approximately 20 million children who are not in school - one of the largest out-of-school populations in the world.^[2]

The Gender Gap

The burden falls disproportionately on girls. Of the 20 million out-of-school children, 12 million are girls and 8 million are boys.^[2] Girls face compounding barriers: long distances to schools (especially at post-primary levels), safety concerns during travel, overcrowded classrooms, and a lack of adequate toilet facilities.^[3]

The consequences extend beyond education. When girls drop out of school, they are more likely to marry early and begin having children at a young age. This contributes to Pakistan's rapid population growth, which in turn puts more pressure on the education system. It is a vicious cycle that becomes harder and more expensive to break with each passing year.

Low Enrollment Rates

Even among children who do attend school, enrollment patterns are concerning. The net enrollment ratio in primary education - the share of primary-school-age children who are actually enrolled in primary school - stands at 67.57%.^[2]

Many Pakistani children start school late and are overage for their grade level, which contributes to higher dropout rates later.

Starting Behind: The Early Childhood Gap

One reason so many children struggle in school is that they arrive unprepared. Enrollment in early childhood education (ECE) in Pakistan is just 19% nationally - 16% in rural areas and 26% in urban areas.^[3]

Compare this to Nepal, where 62% of children are enrolled in ECE programs.^[3]

Research shows that early childhood education matters enormously. In Punjab province, 74% of children aged 3-4 who attended an ECE program were rated as "developmentally on track," compared to just 52% of children who never enrolled.^[3]

The World Bank estimates that if Pakistan raised its ECE enrollment to match Nepal's, the economy would be larger by US$4.7 billion - equivalent to 1.8% of GDP.^[3]

The Human Capital Deficit

Pakistan's education failures translate directly into economic losses through what economists call the Human Capital Index (HCI).

What Is the Human Capital Index?

The HCI measures how much human capital a child born today can expect to attain by age 18, given the risks of poor health and poor education that prevail in their country. An HCI of 1.0 would mean a child attains their full potential. An HCI of 0.5 means they attain half.

Pakistan's HCI is 0.41.^[5] This means a child born in Pakistan today will, on average, attain only 41% of the productivity they could achieve with complete education and full health.

This is lower than the South Asia average (0.48) and comparable to the Sub-Saharan Africa average (0.40).^[5]

The Utilization Problem

The standard HCI assumes that people who acquire human capital will use it in the labor market. But in Pakistan, this assumption fails dramatically - especially for women.

When the World Bank adjusts the HCI to account for whether human capital is actually utilized in employment, Pakistan's index falls from 0.41 to just 0.20.^[5]

This "utilization-adjusted" HCI reveals a stark gender gap:

• Men: 0.31
• Women: 0.08^[5]

The difference exists because approximately 60% of working-age Pakistani women are not in employment, education, or training.^[3] Even when women acquire education and skills, the economy does not benefit from them.

This is perhaps the single most important finding in Pakistan's education data: the country is not just failing to educate its children - it is also failing to use the human capital that does exist.

Chronic Underspending on Education

Pakistan spends remarkably little on education by almost any standard of comparison.

How Little Is Pakistan Spending?

Government expenditure on education in Pakistan is just 2.4% of GDP and 14.5% of total government expenditure.^[4]

Pakistan spends less than the average for low-income countries, despite being classified as a lower-middle-income country.

The Household Burden

When the government underspends, households must fill the gap - but not all households can afford to do so equally. According to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the richest quintile of households spends approximately 12,000 rupees per family member on education, compared to 4,000 rupees for the poorest quintile.^[8] Rich households spend three times as much as poor households.

This creates a two-tier system where educational opportunities depend heavily on family income.

What Would It Take?

The World Bank estimates that bringing every child into school and ensuring they learn the basics would require education spending of 5.4% of GDP - an additional 3 percentage points on top of current spending.^[3]

This is a significant increase, but it is not unprecedented. Bhutan already spends 7% of GDP on education. The question is not whether Pakistan can afford to invest more in education, but whether it can afford not to.

The Infrastructure Reality

Behind the statistics lie concrete realities that shape children's daily experience of schooling.

In Sindh province, 44% of public schools have two classrooms or fewer.^[3] In these schools, teachers must manage multiple grade levels simultaneously - a practice called "multigrade teaching." When done well with proper training and materials, multigrade teaching can be effective. But without support, it often means that children receive fragmented attention and instruction.

Given Pakistan's growing student population, this infrastructure shortage is unlikely to be resolved for decades. The practical response, according to the World Bank, is to provide teachers with specific training and materials for multigrade teaching, rather than pretending the problem does not exist.

Other infrastructure challenges include:

• A shortage of female teachers in rural areas, which discourages families from sending girls to school
• Lack of adequate, functional toilets - a particular barrier for girls
• Safety concerns during travel to and from schools